The Fifth Risk

The Fifth Risk 下載 mobi epub pdf 電子書 2025

Michael Lewis
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W. W. Norton & Company 2018-10-2 Hardcover 9781324002642

具體描述

Michael Lewis is the best-selling author of Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, The Blind Side, The Big Short, and The Undoing Project. He lives in Berkeley, California, with his wife and three children.

What are the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works?

"The election happened," remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the Department of Energy. "And then there was radio silence." Across all departments, similar stories were playing out: Trump appointees were few and far between; those that did show up were shockingly uninformed about the functions of their new workplace. Some even threw away the briefing books that had been prepared for them.

Michael Lewis’s brilliant narrative takes us into the engine rooms of a government under attack by its own leaders. In Agriculture the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches is being slashed. The Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly. Over at Energy, where international nuclear risk is managed, it’s not clear there will be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do.

Willful ignorance plays a role in these looming disasters. If your ambition is to maximize short-term gains without regard to the long-term cost, you are better off not knowing those costs. If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems. There is upside to ignorance, and downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview.

If there are dangerous fools in this book, there are also heroes, unsung, of course. They are the linchpins of the system―those public servants whose knowledge, dedication, and proactivity keep the machinery running. Michael Lewis finds them, and he asks them what keeps them up at night.

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##每一個risk的基本闡述邏輯是:**精英在某個部門做齣瞭傑齣貢獻,某個部門對於整個美國的社會經濟發展不可或缺,而Trump團隊卻對此不夠重視。。。

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##有點散的流水賬,中心思想不過是it's the risks that we fail to imagine that get us killed,扯上特朗普豈不是格局小瞭?

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##美國政治角力的本質,往往不是驢象之爭,而是逐利和逐夢者之爭。作者寫到農業部的時候開始陷入瞭一種固定範式:高效部門被架空、優秀團隊被罷黜、有益項目被取締,Trump與Obama和Bush政權相比有諸多不妥。但是循規蹈矩其實未必穩妥,異於前任未必倒退,我反而覺得Trump團隊最大的過錯在於錶象溝通時的傲慢和冷漠。一切問題都會透過溝通暴露,溝通不當,一切便都是問題。讀完全書,最精華的論點在DOE一章最後,守序的邪惡與無知是第五類風險的本源,要比大眾視野下的混亂善意可怕的多:犧牲長期利益,而試圖通過program management填補短期的漏洞,這纔是一個政治體製倒退的深層原因。

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