具体描述
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times best sellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can do about it.
用户评价
##白瞎了Kahneman的名头，一般般
##The idea is simple but the solution is nonexistent
We don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know might be wrong,incomplete,misleading. Averaging multiple, independent judgments of a single question - accurate answer. Ask yourself the same question multiple times, the average of your responses will be relatively noiseless and surprisingly close to the truth. What share of the world’s airports
##三星半吧 虽然这个三星半里面就肯定有level noise和pattern noise 完全可以砍掉三分之二篇幅就能说明白，好在比较良心的用各种章节切分加大标题加粗 对我最有帮助是附录的checklist
##废话太多了！废话！
##白瞎了Kahneman的名头，一般般
##废话太多了！废话！
##比较啰嗦。社会科学的重重迷雾，读完不会让你觉得更清楚。消除噪音，大概就像要消除随机性一样徒劳吧？
##Truth nothing but the harsh truth. Not much absorption and takeaway from it. Exemplified with several industries , ranging from law systems,hospital , criminal cases etc. theoretically applicable than practice