具體描述
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times best sellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can do about it.
用戶評價
##廢話太多瞭！廢話！
##統計學原理很好懂，如何把這個東西講的大傢都懂比較難。如果不是對腦科學、心理學有研究，那麼略讀掌握概念就好瞭。
##三星半吧 雖然這個三星半裏麵就肯定有level noise和pattern noise 完全可以砍掉三分之二篇幅就能說明白，好在比較良心的用各種章節切分加大標題加粗 對我最有幫助是附錄的checklist
##The idea is simple but the solution is nonexistent
We don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know might be wrong,incomplete,misleading. Averaging multiple, independent judgments of a single question - accurate answer. Ask yourself the same question multiple times, the average of your responses will be relatively noiseless and surprisingly close to the truth. What share of the world’s airports
##Truth nothing but the harsh truth. Not much absorption and takeaway from it. Exemplified with several industries , ranging from law systems,hospital , criminal cases etc. theoretically applicable than practice
##統計學原理很好懂，如何把這個東西講的大傢都懂比較難。如果不是對腦科學、心理學有研究，那麼略讀掌握概念就好瞭。
##三星半吧 雖然這個三星半裏麵就肯定有level noise和pattern noise 完全可以砍掉三分之二篇幅就能說明白，好在比較良心的用各種章節切分加大標題加粗 對我最有幫助是附錄的checklist
##比較囉嗦。社會科學的重重迷霧，讀完不會讓你覺得更清楚。消除噪音，大概就像要消除隨機性一樣徒勞吧？