具体描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用户评价
##方法论里没有新东西，分析的关键在于找出最关键的影响因素，即书中的fulcrum constraint。案例写得清晰有趣，但做出类似分析，找出有意义的constraint需要反复练习（也不一定能像作者这样成功），本来想打四🌟，但是对疫情后政策的预判都对了就再加一颗吧。
##既要分析约束，也要观察互动，而互动总是充斥误解和曲解。作者对俄罗斯开战的分析踢到铁板，多半就是观察互动时失焦了。值得多读几次。
##重要的是理解约束。
##22-06-07：兰老师推荐。/基于约束而不是偏好的一种分析方法。印象深刻处：2015希腊危机，多极力量分析。
##库斯图里卡版的塔勒布那种感觉
##没有什么新意。
##方法论里没有新东西，分析的关键在于找出最关键的影响因素，即书中的fulcrum constraint。案例写得清晰有趣，但做出类似分析，找出有意义的constraint需要反复练习（也不一定能像作者这样成功），本来想打四🌟，但是对疫情后政策的预判都对了就再加一颗吧。
##内容于我而言够impressive，之后会多读同类。读英语总归有点迷糊，等这段忙完了整理个清楚的笔记。（但估计忙完就暑假了😑
##挺好的宏观政经怯魅读物。Preferences are optional and subject to constraints. Constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. 理解每个政治家决策时面临的constraints比起找一堆ex官员打听各种内幕消息要重要的多（英国脱欧 / 希腊留欧 / 中美贸易战 这种事情和几个关键决策人的主观倾向关系不大，最后还是要算客观收益）。但当然政治家也没有那么理性，作者在21年预言说俄罗斯不会主动发起战争（因为资源出口主要面向欧洲），今年就被啪啪打脸，靠宏观赚钱真是太难了。