Trade disputes are usually understood as conflicts between countries with competing national interests, but as Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis show, they are often the unexpected result of domestic political choices to serve the interests of the rich at the expense of workers and ordinary retirees. Klein and Pettis trace the origins of today’s trade wars to decisions made by politicians and business leaders in China, Europe, and the United States over the past thirty years. Across the world, the rich have prospered while workers can no longer afford to buy what they produce, have lost their jobs, or have been forced into higher levels of debt. In this thought‑provoking challenge to mainstream views, the authors provide a cohesive narrative that shows how the class wars of rising inequality are a threat to the global economy and international peace—and what we can do about it.
##台版繁体,记忆点:第二章1820年开始的全球金融周期/危机梳理不错(逐利阶层的全球化运作,以及地方代表,势必表现以及勾稽政治和军事力量);重述霍布森观点,从贸易顺逆差追究到分配制度(世界大同可行性不高);以及简述全球贸易历史(盛极一时的避税安排以及国际贸易高融合下的全貌难解)
##20220527:中国过度储蓄(global saving glut)导致美国经常账户赤字增加的胡话出自伯南克。本想把这句话补加书评中,但显示书评中有被禁内容,无法更新。也不知是哪些词犯了禁,原书评是人工审核通过的,但编辑更新估计是系统自动审核,所以过不了。豆瓣审查功能就是这么差。
##可以通过这本书学到很多国际贸易,金融历史和现状的知识。180年前大清国与大英帝国的鸦片战争不是关于鸦片的,而是关于贸易的。鸦片战争只是从贸易矛盾升华到热战的程度,背后是因为贸易的不平衡,双方争夺的是如何成为一个顺差国。而今天的中美的贸易战本质是不同国家由于全球化造成的内部矛盾。贸易战有三方玩家,收益方是资本在全球流动过程中钱生钱的财团和银行获得巨大的利润,另外两个玩家是像中国那样低收入的贸易顺差国家和被压迫的普通人。还有受到失业的压迫以及债务的上升像美国那样的贸易逆差国家的普通人。受益者是跨国财团,受害人是中美两国的普通老百姓。川普当选后是代表美国中低层的人们利益,他们对华尔街那些财团以及全球化造成的负面影响是不满的,这些民众都是不满现状,想要改变。唯一办法是去全球化或逆全球化。
##A deeply problematic book that evades the question of growth in developing countries, as well as the issue of demographics in the so-called surplus countries. It will lend intellectual gravitas to a lot of protectionist measures in the next administration.
##A deeply problematic book that evades the question of growth in developing countries, as well as the issue of demographics in the so-called surplus countries. It will lend intellectual gravitas to a lot of protectionist measures in the next administration.
为时而著,但不妨碍是一本好书。前三章温习了国际贸易、国际金融和发展经济学最重要的知识点。后三章阐述了中德美在当今世界贸易中的现状。中德因为自身的历史和结构性原因制造有余而消费不足,超额供给在全世界寻求市场;美国因美元的霸权地位吸收全世界的冗余资金,随之而来的巨额私人债务和贸易逆差加剧了锈带的去工业化,最终让右翼民粹主义登台。循此逻辑,Klein和Pettis不同意Navarro的双边贸易解决方案,而是要求以各国的国内调整带动国际间的调整,避免重演一百年前国际贸易不平衡的覆辙。作者用心不可谓不良苦,但最优逻辑解的条件往往又是最苛刻的。由最优解向次优解、次次优解一路滑落,最终积重难返,这样的例子在历史上也比比皆是。
##重温
##论述起来显得不太convincing,很容易被低估,但说出了很多ugly truth,有助于理解当下,实在比很多所谓“严肃的学术著作”强多了。读完想借用Michael Yates的书名叹一句,Can the Working Class(Still) Change the World?
##"Despite these moves toward liberalization, the end of the war failed to restore trade to its pre-1929, much less pre-1913, importance. In fact, crossborder flows of goods and services relative to global output would not return to the zenith reached in the 1870s until the 1970s." Shocked me.