像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter D...

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店铺: 澜瑞外文Lanree图书专营店
出版社: Portfolio
ISBN:9780735216358
商品编码:25274727564
包装:精装
外文名称:Thinking in Bets- Maki...
出版时间:2018-02-06
页数:288
正文语种:英语


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像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
作者: Annie Duke;
ISBN13: 9780735216358
类型: 精装(精装书)
语种: 英语(English)
出版日期: 2018-02-06
出版社: Portfolio
页数: 288
重量(克): 453
尺寸: 20.574 x 13.97 x 2.794 cm

商品简介
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter D... 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书 格式

像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter D... mobi 下载 pdf 下载 pub 下载 txt 电子书 下载 2024

像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter D... 下载 mobi pdf epub txt 电子书 格式 2024

像打牌一样思考 Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter D... 下载 mobi epub pdf 电子书
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