具体描述
One of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time provides practical insight and keen analysis on how to track, and react to, the ups and downs of the stock market. Marks reveals the hidden logic in carefully pinpointing market trends so that every investor can profit.
”When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something.” –Warren Buffett
Economies, companies, and markets operate according to patterns or cycles. These cycles arise from naturally occurring phenomena in everyday business, and to a large extent, from the simple ups and downs of human psychology and behavior. When should you pull out of the market? When should you stay in?
These fundamental psychological influences–including greed and fear–can and do profoundly affect investors. If you carefully study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and remain alert for the next up or down cycle, you won't have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment. And you're less likely to be blind-sided by unexpected events.
By following Marks’s insights–which are drawn from his memorable memos to clients–you can master these recurring patterns for your own financial gain and psychological benefit.
用户评价
##太阳底下无新鲜事。谨慎判断，预估风险。
##Thank u (for repeating that u have 45 yrs of experience in investing again and again), next
##道可道，非常道。 To be roughly right in extreme cases. 总体来讲，这本书不如《投资最重要的事》。其实可以写得更短一些，没有必要写成一本书。
##好多语病，甚至还有错别字，尽管很多观点依然是很宝贵的。总体来说是细化了《最重要的事》一书中对于周期性的理解。相对稳定的经济周期也会波动，通过债务和经营杠杆放大净利波动，再辐射到人心上影响投资者风险偏好以及信贷消费最终形成相互影响的大周期。理解周期的意义是明白所处周期的位置。知道所处周期的位置不需要借助任何预测，而是可以完全由观察当下的指标实现的，比如投资债和垃圾债之间收益之差，贷款的难易程度，报纸的头条，资产估值，近期资产升值的幅度，投资者的总体情绪，募集新的基金的难易程度等等。知道所处周期位置能够帮助投资人更好地调整风险暴露，配置相应资产，迎接可能出现的各种市场情形。这种判断必然不总是正确的，但是从概率角度来讲，只要大数定理进来，他们就能获取极好的收益。
##Audible初体验，赞亚马逊！听书容易走神，不好follow. 比较适合休闲，睡觉前听一会儿。第一遍听完，还需要再听几遍，因为有时候听着听着就睡着了。Cycle matters. 周期就是“势”。顺势而为，锐不可当；逆势而动，万劫不复。
##挺啰嗦的，有趣的点在最后几章。
##写的略乱…整本读下来没吸收到多少东西
##不如前一本，推荐橡树资本的Memo
##好多语病，甚至还有错别字，尽管很多观点依然是很宝贵的。总体来说是细化了《最重要的事》一书中对于周期性的理解。相对稳定的经济周期也会波动，通过债务和经营杠杆放大净利波动，再辐射到人心上影响投资者风险偏好以及信贷消费最终形成相互影响的大周期。理解周期的意义是明白所处周期的位置。知道所处周期的位置不需要借助任何预测，而是可以完全由观察当下的指标实现的，比如投资债和垃圾债之间收益之差，贷款的难易程度，报纸的头条，资产估值，近期资产升值的幅度，投资者的总体情绪，募集新的基金的难易程度等等。知道所处周期位置能够帮助投资人更好地调整风险暴露，配置相应资产，迎接可能出现的各种市场情形。这种判断必然不总是正确的，但是从概率角度来讲，只要大数定理进来，他们就能获取极好的收益。